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Who Will Take Oscar Home?
02/09/2009 Just when you think an 81-year-old man can’t surprise you anymore, good, old Oscar reveals that he still has a few tricks up his golden sleeves. In my 21 years of watching the Academy Awards (and 15 years of actually being aware of what I was watching), I think this years Oscars will not only be one of the most memorable awards ceremonies but it will also be one of the most competitive and unpredictable ones. That being said, I’m going to try and predict the winners. Best Motion Picture of the Year Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Ceán Chaffin, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall Frost/Nixon (2008): Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Eric Fellner Milk (2008): Bruce Cohen, Dan Jinks The Reader (2008): Nominees to be determined Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Christian Colson I want Benjamin Button to win Best Picture because I’m just that sentimental, but I almost never get what I want when it comes to awards season. Thus, I believe the stiffest competition in this category is between Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire, with Slumdog being a mild underdog. I think the Oscar will go to Milk, the film represents the struggle for gay rights that continues today and the subject matter resonates with a wide audience. Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role Nominees: Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2007/I) Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon (2008) Sean Penn for Milk (2008) Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008) Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008) The leading actor award will be a battle between one-time-winner Sean Penn and first-time-nominated Frank Langella. Brad Pitt was superb in Benjamin Button and Mickey Rourke fought long and hard for his nomination and it would speak to his perseverance if he won. Sean Penn is an amazing actor with the good sense to pursue award-worthy roles. But Frank Langella has always been teetering at the edge of greatness and with Frost/Nixon he finally jumped in. I think the Oscar will go to Langella but it will be a close one. Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role Nominees: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008) Angelina Jolie for Changeling (2008) Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008) Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008/I) Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008) This is Kate Winslet’s sixth nomination but she has never won. For Meryl Streep, this is her 15th nomination; she won twice but her last win was 16 years ago. Angelina has won for Best Supporting Actress but this is her first nomination for Best Actress. Neither Anne Hathaway nor Melissa Leo have ever been nominated. Both Angelina Jolie and Meryl Streep’s performances were some of their finest work. I think this year Oscar will welcome someone new into the folds of Gold. Melissa Leo is a wild card with every possibility of claiming the honor. Anne Hathaway is gunning for the award and there is no questioning her ability to handle her most serious role but I’m not sure if the Academy has taken her completely out of her romantic comedy box. But I think this could be Kate Winslet’s year she was a double winner at the Golden Globes, but she won leading actress for Revolutionary Road not The Reader. Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees: Josh Brolin for Milk (2008) Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder (2008) Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt (2008/I) Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008) Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road (2008) Can I just say, best nominations ever! Not only did the Academy nominate Robert Downey Jr. for a comedy (very rare for the Academy to even acknowledge a comedy) but they also nominated Heath Ledger. I know most people expected Heath Ledgers nomination especially after his Golden Globe win but Oscar is also the king of the snubs (see Clint Eastwood). Heath Ledger’s performance as The Joker was one of the best pieces of acting this year, so it’s no question that he deserves the nomination and maybe even the award, so I hope that he wins but I have a nagging in the back of my mind saying it won’t happen. The Academy is trying to turn over a new leaf but it’s not going to change that fast. My guess is that the Award will go to either Philip Seymour Hoffman of Michael Shannon. Both had phenomenal performances in their respective movies. Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees: Amy Adams for Doubt (2008/I) Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) Viola Davis for Doubt (2008/I) Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008) Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler (2008) Penélope Cruz hands down. Every woman in this category earned her nomination but Cruz as Marie Elena is simply unparalleled. Best Achievement in Directing Nominees: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008) Stephen Daldry for The Reader (2008) David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008) Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon (2008) Gus Van Sant for Milk (2008) Can you say snub to Clint Eastwood? The nominations passed him over, I expected he would at least get a nod for Changeling, but no. Changeling got various nominations but none that include Eastwood, he didn’t even get any nods for his last acting gig Gran Torino, conspiracy I say but that’s beside the point. Ron Howard and Gus Van Sant are both at the top of their game with their films in this category but between the two I think the Oscar will go to Gus Van Sant for the same reasons I think Milk will win the Best Picture Award. Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen Nominees: Frozen River (2008): Courtney Hunt Happy-Go-Lucky (2008): Mike Leigh In Bruges (2008): Martin McDonagh Milk (2008): Dustin Lance Black WALL·E (2008): Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon As much as I would love it if the lovable WALL-E took home this award, I believe that the Oscar will again go to Milk. Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Roth, Robin Swicord Doubt (2008/I): John Patrick Shanley Frost/Nixon (2008): Peter Morgan The Reader (2008): David Hare Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Simon Beaufoy Again I would love for Benjamin Button to win but it will have to struggle in this pool of excellent material. Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire are probably the top runners in this category with Frost/Nixon ahead by just a hair. Best Foreign Language Film of the Year Nominees: Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (2008)(Germany) Entre les murs (The Class) (2008)(France) Revanche (2008)(Austria) Okuribito (Depatures) (2008)(Japan) Vals Im Bashir (Waltz With Bashir) (2008)(Israel) This is one of the most competitive categories this year. The Class was the winner of the Golden Palm at the Cannes Film Festival this year. But Waltz With Bashir is a phenomenal film and won the Golden Globe. Both films deserve the award but they can’t split the Oscar. I think the award will go to Waltz With Bashir because it is the most innovative film in the category. While the other films nominated in the category are merely movies, Waltz With Bashir is an animated documentary that mixes the dreams of the subjects with the reality of the event to breathe new life into an old genre of films. While the Academy stuck to their usual MO of nominating many critically acclaimed films, they have heard the people and the ratings and they are adapting and throwing in some mainstream films. I believe this mild revamping could be the catalyst that will bring the Academy Awards back to the people. Comments [post a comment]Comments are closed |
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