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An Independent Woman?: Hillary Clinton As A Third Party Candidate
04/21/2008 So what's a girl to do? Hillary Clinton appears to be falling into the crevice between a rock and a hard place. If she attacks Barack Obama without any sense of restraint - his links to the Weathermen, his bowling scores, the soon to break story regarding his (lack of) flossing - she looks petty and mean. In the parlance of the politicos, her negatives go up. In the parlance of me, she looks like a jerk. If she goes the other way... wait a minute, there isn't really another way. She could try and debate policy, but given that there have been about as many debates as contests (21), and that they have such similar policies (this is, after all, a primary between two Democrats, lest we forget) that doesn't really seem like a winner either. Here's what we know. Hillary's going to probably win Pennsylvania, and probably by a lot. She'll most likely win Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Barack will probably grab North Carolina by about as much as she wins Pennsylvania and Oregon. Then it's on to contests where the last remaining big prize is Puerto Rico with it's 55 delegates. So ain't going to change much. She most likely won't beat him in the national popular vote. She won't beat him in pledged delegates, and she won't beat him in states/contests won. Which leaves her having to convince about two thirds of the superdelegates to ignore the voting and vote for her because she's more electable. Given that she's picked up something like 8 superdelegates (to approximately 50 for Barack) in the last little bit, this seems unlikely. So what's a girl to do? Take her ball and go home. And start her own game. I'll say it right now. I don't think it's likely, but I do think it's a plausible outcome. What happens after she makes her play for the superdelegates and loses? Does she give up? Hillary is over 60. If she waits until the next go round she could be pushing John McCain's age when the second term is over and she can run again. She desperately (and who can blame her) wants to be the first woman president of the United States. She still has donors who are giving her lots and lots of money. Most importantly, she has a large number of supporters who have said that they would vote for nobody at all if Hillary isn't at the top of the ticket. Her supporters are loyal. Perhaps more loyal to her than to the Democratic Party. I think there is a real possibility that Hillary says to the Democratic party, "Thank you very much for your time, but if you're not going to support me for president, I'll find someone who will." I think there is a real danger that she runs as a third party candidate if she does not win. Countless reporters have said that she's in it because she believes that Obama cannot win. Why should she stop once the Democratic party - many of whom she and her husband helped to put in place - says so? It'd be extremely easy for her to run independently. Her infrastructure is in place from the lengthy primary, so unlike other elections where there was no contest in Ohio or Pennsylvania and she would've had to start from scratch in the general, this time, she's ready. She's got money. She's got credibility. It might even lower her negatives as she always seems to be doing better when she's the outsider and when she's being ganged up on, both of which are primary features of being an outsider candidate. And the Democrats can't even complain that she's hurting their chances for victory. Nader was bad because he shaved off votes, but never won anything on his own. An independent Hillary would certainly win states, perhaps even the big states like New York and California, when pitted against Obama and McCain. And projections for the general indicate she would do well in places Obama wouldn't and vice versa. It might even be net better for the Democrats to have a two headed monster take on McCain. They could trade off areas of the country they beat him in. At worst, she wins enough electoral votes to guarantee that no one wins a majority of electoral votes. Then it goes to the House. The Democratically controlled House. Now there is certainly the possibility that she may win some electoral votes but that Congress may give her the cold shoulder. But it's also possible that 15-20 representatives may say to the rest of the party, either we all vote for Clinton and guarantee a "Democratic" president, or else we'll switch over and vote for McCain. I think it's much less likely anyone would play similar hardball on Obama's side - no one could credibly say "it's either Obama or McCain, for me." I think this is her best shot at winning. Her only argument with the superdelegates is electability, and see above regarding the blowback from negativity. So should we be scared for a Democratic split, a third party, and eventual Clinton White House? I said plausible, not likely. Here are three reasons that argue against this scenario happening. 1. Hillary wants a Democrat in the White House in 2009 desperately. Although she could probably win some states, in each individual state either her or Obama would have to win despite the fact that they are picking from the same pie. If neither of them gets to ~40% then McCain most likely wins. True, there has been an increase in Democratic registration, but it would have to offset the GOP's famous ability to close ranks. Given the stakes, it's an awfully, awfully big risk. 2. It's political suicide. Now, one could argue that Hillary sees this campaign as the death throes of her political career or that she's willing to gamble with her life when it comes to the White House, but it's also political suicide for every member of her campaign. Clinton for President isn't the principal, a laptop, and a rental car, but a whole army of people all the way up to "generals" like Mark Penn. Think they're going to jump on the Titanic? Of course not, but that does presuppose they see a 3rd party bid as similarly doomed, which they might not. 3. Even if it got to the House, the chickens, as the Reverend Wright reminds us, would come home to roost. (I totally and completely disavow and disown the previous sentence). If Hillary chose to run by herself, she would be giving the one finger salute to the entirety of the Democratic party, or at least the part that didn't support her going on this expedition. At the end, in order to win, she'd be right back where she started, trying to convince the ultimate superdelegates to vote for her. She may have better ammunition this time, but then again she may not. Comments [post a comment]
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Wednesday, August 20, 2008
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