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Four Burning Tennis Questions After The Miami ATP Masters Event: Roddick, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic And The Ranking Math
04/07/2008 The ATP Masters Series Event in Miami traditionally marks the end of the Spring hardcourt season. Before the tour heads to Europe for its Clay-Court season, Miami left us with four burning questions. Question #1: Has Andy Roddick been replaced? A: Signs point to yes. I try to attend at least one ATP tour event a year. In the past, every female I knew would approach me with a simple request: “Oh, If you see Andy Roddick, tell him I said hi...” Some were bolder than others: “When you see Andy, tell him I’m available.” But Miami was the first tournament since Andy Roddick announced his engagement. The reactions from female fans appear diverse and furious. Half are in the “denial” camp: “Engaged does not mean married.” Half are just plain angry: “He proposed to a swimsuit model – I always knew he’d do something like that." Whether by force of hostility or tragic acceptance, ladies have now turned their attention to Rafael Nadal. The following sentences were uttered in the seats of stadium court: “If you do not cheer for Rafa, I will not sit next to you.” And the devastating: “Roddick’s OK, but Rafa...” It’s official. There is now a new heartthrob. His name is Rafael Nadal. For the record, It should be stated that: I have never run into Andy Roddick – and the odds of me doing so are about 1000:1. The odds that a typical ATP player would ask me for the phone number of a random female on my speed dial are 5,000:1. The specific odds that Andy Roddick, in his heyday, would have requested such a phone number were about 1:8. Question #2: Is Roger Federer the “sleeper pick” to win the French Open? A: I think so. It sounds crazy to call Roger Federer a “sleeper” to win any tournament. That said, a blunt look reveals that this will be an uphill climb. He has not won a tournament this year. Clay is not his best surface. Nadal is untouchable at Roland Garros. However, a twist has developed – the emergence of world #3 Novak Djokovic. A little background is necessary: First. In his last three trips to Paris, Federer has been eliminated by only one man – Rafael Nadal. Absent that, Federer has undoubtedly been the second-best clay court player in the world. He would be a favorite against any other opponent – including Djokovic. Second. The first seed (Federer) and second seed (Nadal) will be placed on opposite sides of the draw. They will then flip a coin to determine the location of the third seed (Djokovic). Assuming Djokovic lands on Nadal’s side of the draw, a scenario emerges where Federer’s path to winning the French will (finally) not need to go through Nadal. Although Djokovic would be an underdog against Nadal, his chances are clearly improving. Djokovic won his first grand slam title in January. His confidence is self-evident. And, unlike many top players, he is not irked by red clay. Most importantly, Djokovic is not intimidated by Nadal. He’s a future # 1, and it’s reasonable to give him a puncher’s chance against anyone – even Rafael Nadal in Paris. A wise friend once told me “if your goal is to win the NCAA office pool, don’t pick UNC. Everyone else will." Well, if your goal is to win the French Open pool, consider picking a Federer over Djokovic in the men’s final. Question #3: Will Rafael Nadal ever be ranked #1? A: Probably not. This prediction is not based upon a lack of respect for Nadal. Rather, it is based upon mathematics and a hard-court bias in the ranking system. The ATP ranking system is unique. The goal is simple: As of today, who has been the best player has been during the previous twelve months? After twelve months, results are wiped-off the computer. Hence, players are not solely concerned with how they the fare at this weekend’s tournament. They are also concerned with how they performed relative to last year’s tournament. To draw an analogy, the UCLA’s Men’s Basketball team had a fine season – losing in the Final Four. But, if the ATP ranking system were in effect, they would have “gained zero net points," because they also lost in the final four in 2007. Kansas, however, would have a far larger net gain – as they have gotten considerably further this year than in 2007. This basic math presents a problem for Rafael Nadal. He essentially wins every clay court match he plays (losing only one match on the surface in 2007). To make matters even more daunting, Nadal was also a finalist at Wimbledon. Thus, even if he “runs the table” again, he will gain very little in the way of ranking points. Suppose Nadal wins all four clay court tournaments this Spring (no easy task). Further suppose that he goes on to repeat as a Wimbledon finalist (possibly an even more difficult task). Under this scenario, he would gain 150 ranking points. He currently trails Federer by 670 ranking points. Nadal’s best chance of reaching #1 is a Federer collapse – and this is not entirely out of the question, as Federer also has ranking built upon strong clay court results. Still, if Nadal is not ranked #1 by August, it’s difficult to see how he can avoid the forthcoming charge of Novak Djokovic. Nadal is assuredly “The King of Clay," but he’s up against a rising “King of Hard Courts." In practice, the path to #1 is likely to be based on hard court results. There are only four “big” clay court tournaments a year. There is only one big grass court tournament a year. In contrast, 9 of the 14 biggest tournaments are played on hard courts, including two grand slam events. Advantage: Djokovic. Question #4: How long until Djokovic takes over the #1 ranking? A: No later than one year from today, maybe sooner. Djokovic had a poor showing in Miami – losing in his opening match. Oddly, this presents an opportunity for next year. It is incredibly unlikely that Djokovic will lose in the opening round of the 2009 Miami event. If he puts forth even an average showing, he could stand to pick up several hundred ranking points. Last winter, he also performed poorly at a few important hard-court tournaments. This presents another opportunity for a jump in the rankings. Throw in his early exit from the 2007 Cincinnati Masters Event, and you are looking at a top 3 player that needs to only hold his seeding on his favorite surface in order to gain hundreds – perhaps thousands – of ranking points. If he is not already #1 by April 2009, I predict Novak Djokovic will capitalize on the newly-created “dead zone” in his current ranking profile. He’ll become the top ranked player by no later than the end of next year’s ATP Masters Event in Miami. While his backhand is great, it’s the math that’s his greatest weapon. Comments [post a comment]
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Thursday, July 03, 2008
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