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Atlanta Braves Playoffs Chances: Insanity or Possibility?

by Christopher McIntosh
08/07/2006

The Atlanta Braves have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs.

I hate to quote "Dumb and Dumber," but it's about the only thing that captures what I'm about to say.

Jim Carrey's character asks the love interest to quantify the percent chance he has of landing her as a girlfriend.

Her response?

One in a million.

Jim Carrey's character pauses, then breaks into a huge smile and says, "So you're saying there's a chance!"

Bear with me here. I'm not making a mathematical argument, as in, the Braves are not technically eliminated so they do *have* a chance, by definition.

People are looking to next season because the assumption is they've got not shot at this year's playoffs.

I disagree.

The Braves are seven games out. Conceded.

The Braves just dropped a doubleheader to the Mets where they were outscored on Saturday 12-1. Conceded.

Here's why they have a shot.

The Mets series was an aberration. The Mets (God, it kills me to say this) may be the best team in baseball. They will be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs sometime in the next couple of weeks (perhaps days).

In other words, they are a good team. A great team in fact.

As well, the starting pitcher in the first game of the doubleheader was John Smoltz and, but for one 385 foot mistake, was holding the Mets offense to one run, and left the game with only three earned runs to his credit.

But the great thing was he looked terrible. He couldn't find the plate with a map. And still he pushed through with a quality start. He just got no run support.

There is no way he continues to pitch like that down the stretch.

There are many teams ahead of the Braves in the wild card "race," but roughly half of them are Florida, Philadelphia, and Houston.

The Braves play series with all of them prior to the end of this season.

The other two teams of note are the leading San Diego Padres and the Giants, who much like the Marlins and Phillies are likely to push one team down in the standings (unless they perfectly split their remaining series).

They also play in a tougher division, the NL West, then either the Astros, or the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins.

The latter three are all more than 16.5 back of the Mets as of right now.

Thus, my theory. This is going to sound like an LSAT question, but there is some logic here (I think).

Both San Diego and San Francisco are unlikely to improve their relative ranking in the wild card. One is almost certainly guaranteed of going down and the other of going up.

Florida and the Phillies are in a similar predicament, but even more so. These two teams play each other in *three* more series prior to the end of the season. It's statistically improbable that one won't separate from the other.

Potentially, that knocks out two teams.

The Astros are the final team ahead of the Braves in the wild card standings.

They'd have to catch fire like they did last year to even get a shot and that seems unlikely.

Plus, there's one other thing.

Their last series is a three game set - with the Braves.

So what does this leave for the Braves? We have series with three of the teams currently ahead of us and could potentially leapfrog the NL central contender if we go on a tear.

This isn't as crazy as you might think. The Braves could pick up games on the Marlins or the Phillies in each of those series. If they win the series they might pick up one game. Sweep either of them and it's a whole new ball game. If we get lucky and sweep the team that comes out of the Marlins-Phillies bloodbath ahead, we can potentially put all NL east wild card contenders in the ground.

As an added bonus a sweep of either series potentially jumps Atlanta's record vis-a-vis the contenders they can't control.

The Houston series might become functionally irrelevant, but if they get hot and somehow the Braves find themselves first and second with the Astros with three games left, so long as they're within three games, their fate is in their own hands. See aforementioned season ending series with the Astros.

If that were to happen, the question then is, how could they possibly pick up games on the Padres (or if the Padres get hot, the Dodgers) or the Giants.

The series that are not against other wild card contenders? Four games with the Rockies. Four games with the Cubs, and a 3 game series with the Nationals.

With the exception of a 3 game set with the Mets, the Braves do not play a team with a record over .500 the rest of the season.

Let me repeat that.

The Atlanta Braves have 23 games left, 20 of which are against teams with sub .500 records.

Here's some more math for you. If the Braves finish the season 16-7, they'll finish with an 82-80 record. If they finish 17-6, it's 83-79.

San Diego is in first and seven games over .500, but that's almost certainly going to come down as the NL West fights it out. Whoever comes out of that division second is not likely to be seven games over .500.

What does 16-7 mean? The Braves could lose two to the Mets, one each in the three game sets to Florida and Philadelphia, go 3-1 with the Cubs and Rockies, and lose one to the Astros.

If the Braves sweep any of those series, which is conceivable given how bad the teams are we are playing, we're looking at the possibility 17-6 or even 18-5 and have the breathing room to split a series or two.

I realize there is one obvious problem with my logic.

The Braves have not looked like a good baseball team. They might not even be a good baseball team. After all, there are good reasons to explain why they are 7 games under .500. Our bullpen is not so good, but we have added a serviceable closer.

But the other reason is something that might be fixed.

There is some light at the end of the tunnel. There is reason to believe the Braves might improve in addition the quality of their opponents decreasing. Hudson and Smoltz are battle tested and unlikely to continue their problems. If they do, admittedly, my theory falls apart. Plus, Chuck James has looked real good in his last starts, including that one hitter against the Mets.

There's also the question of tightness. Although this Braves team is young, they won the division last year and there are veterans who have been there before. The possibility of some of these other teams choking is not out of the question.

Let's not forget that your world champion White Sox dominated the playoffs, but nearly squandered a double digit division lead in September, sweating out the division title until nearly the last game.

If the Braves can start rolling, they can realistically end the season 83-79 or 82-80.

Last year, that record would not have earned the NL wild card.

It would have *won* the NL West.

I'm saying there's a chance.

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